Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.
The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. My approach to ranking pitchers is broken into three parts.
- How good is the pitcher? This may sound overly simplistic but I’ll never use a pitcher unless I believe he has a high likelihood he can get outs consistently. I use three statistics primarily to evaluate a pitcher: strikeout rate, hard hit rate and hit distribution (ground balls and fly balls). Strikeouts are not the end all, be all because there are different expectations based on the pitchers salary. Strikeouts are very important, but they need to evaluated and rooted in the second part.
- What is the pitcher’s salary? There different point expectation levels for each salary range. A pitcher with five digits implies he is going to provide 27-plus points (usually with a lot of strikeouts) and the likelihood of that are high. A pitcher below $7,000 means expectations should be lowered. Therefore, expect 10-14 points with the expectation he could score in the single digits. When evaluating a pitcher below $7,000 I’m looking for a quality start with moderate strikeouts (4-5) over 6-plus innings. The reason why is these pitchers may not have the ceiling as the pricier pitchers, but they may the higher ROI potential. By that I mean, if a $6,500 pitcher provides 19 points that’s better than a $11,000 pitcher providing 27 points because the ROI (return on investment) is better. Or in other words, you’re making more points per dollar spent.
- Who is the pitcher playing and where is the game? Everyone uses Coors as an example as a place where to not choose a pitcher, but let’s take it a little further. Obviously you don’t want a pitcher pitching in Coors, but what about a fly ball pitcher in Milwaukee? I’m not using a fly ball pitcher in that ballpark because the likelihood of home run is higher than in another ballpark like Oakland or Minnesota. The initial team statistics I look at is wOBA and hard hit rate against the handedness pitcher. These statistics quickly provide insight into how effective the offense is. It’s very important to take these statistics into context because players may have been injured and come back into the lineup. The next team statistic is strikeout and hit distribution against the handedness pitcher. For example, if a team hits a lot of ground balls, the pitcher generates a lot of ground balls and is only priced $6,500 odds are I’m going to use him.
Pitcher Rankings
Francisco Liriano: $10,300 – ARI
For the year, against lefties, the Diamondbacks have the eighth highest wOBA, ninth highest walk rate and tenth highest hard hit rate. Liriano has a very high walk rate, but he gets away with it because of the high strikeout rate and his ability to generate a lot of weak contact and ground balls. I like Liriano because the Diamondbacks have the fifth highest ground ball rate against lefties.
Kevin Gausman: $5,100 – NYM
I may be on an island, but I’m still buying Kevin Gausman especially this week when he’s a two start, starter. Both the Twins and Mets have OBP issues. His 4.47 ERA as a starting pitcher this year isn’t a true indicator of his true talent level; he can still miss a ton of bats and most importantly, his hard hit rate, as a starter, is average so the ERA should be lower than what it is.
James Shields: $8,600 – ATL
At the beginning of the year Shields got unlucky with the HR/FB rate (25.4%), but in his last 15 starts the HR/FB rate is 11.3%. During the last 15 starts he has a 3.99 ERA, 1.362 WHIP and a .316 BABIP. Shields has underperformed this year, but in the past month the Braves have the second lowest HR/FB rate and third lowest hard hit rate. It’s very unlucky Shields gets burned by the long ball.
Clayton Kershaw: $15,000 – @OAK
At Kershaw’s price point Kershaw has to score 30-plus points to break even. There are conflicting statistics about whether or not he can achieve that. The Athletics, against lefties, have the fifth lowest hard hit rate, but they have the third lowest strikeout rate. The Athletics lineup isn’t overly impressive so there’s a higher probability he scores 30-plus points than less.
Anibal Sanchez: $7,300 – @CHC
The Cubs have the highest strikeout rate in the majors so fantasy owners should at least give Sanchez a long look. Sanchez is a fly ball pitcher and can be home run prone. Combine that with the Cubs have the second best fly ball rate this year. At the end of the day if Sanchez can limit the home run he will be a value.
Jacob deGrom: $11,600 – @BAL
For the year, against righties, the Orioles have the fourth highest hard hit rate and the highest HR/FB rate. Arguably deGrom is the best pitcher on the Mets, but he’s pitching in a hitter friendly ballpark and faces the DH instead of the pitcher.
Lance Lynn: $9,500 – SF
Lynn has only given up more than three runs in five of his 22 starts. The Giants have the fifth lowest strikeout rate for the year so there isn’t a lot of strikeout upside, but odds are you’re going to get a quality start. Lynn has much more value in double up formats.
Trevor Bauer: $7,700 – @BOS
Bauer has #1 starter stuff, but below average command and control, which leads to him walking 10 percent of the batter he faces (since July the walk rate is only 7.3 percent). He generates average hard hit rates, but since he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher he allows a lot of home runs. This is one of the worst ballparks and teams Bauer could be facing, but his stuff is so good he could strikeout 10-plus. He’s priced appropriately.
Garrett Richards: $9,800 – CWS
I love the matchup from a traditional roto point of view, but the strikeouts aren’t there to warrant his high price point. Last year he had six strikeouts or more in 17 of 25 starts (I excluded the last start where he got hurt in the second inning). This year only nine of 22 starts.
Eduardo Rodriguez: $6,300 – CLE
Rodriguez has pitched much better than his 4.83 ERA would indicate. His hard hit rate ranks in the top 20% among qualified starting pitchers. He’s pitched much better on the road than at home: 4.31 ERA and 5.35 ERA respectively. In the past month the Indians have the fifth lowest hard hit rate against lefties.
Chase Anderson: $5,800 – @PIT
Anderson has had two starts since coming off the DL with a right triceps inflammation. One was really good (at home to the Reds) and the other was awful (home to the Phillies). Since All-Star Break the Pirates have the seventh highest hard hit rate against righties. Anderson is actually a better pitcher against lefties and the Pirates will only use three lefties tomorrow so there isn’t a lot of upside.
Mike Leake: $7,100 – @STL
For his career, Mike Leake has a 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP away from the Reds home ballpark. Now he gets play behind one of the best defenses in the majors. He’s a sneaky play in weekly formats.
Hisashi Iwakuma: $9,300 – @TEX
The sample size is low, but Iwakuma has conflicting statistics. He is generating a lot of ground balls, but he’s allowing a lot of hard contact. In fact he ranks in the bottom 25% among qualified starting pitchers. He has a no-hitter, but the Rangers have the sixth highest hard rate against righties. I wouldn’t be surprised if he allows two or more home runs.
Jake Odorizzi: $8,300 – @HOU
Before the All-Star Break the Astros had the highest strikeout rate, but since then they have the 21st highest strikeout rate. There’s not a lot of upside for strikeouts and since 2014 Odorizzi has a 5.23 ERA and 1.461 WHIP on the road.
Edinson Volquez: $7,400 – @CIN
In 11 away starts this year Volquez has a 3.66 ERA and 1.312 WHIP. He has a below average strikeout rate, a walk rate that ranks in the bottom ten percent of qualified starting pitchers and the Reds have the ninth lowest strikeout rate against righties.
Matt Wisler: $5,600 – @SD
I love Wisler long term, but he’s giving up way too much hard contact to be a reliable fantasy option.
Jason Hammel: $8,400 – DET
In Hammel’s last five starts he’s only averaging 5 innings per start and 85 pitches per start. I love Hammel’s talent, but if he isn’t going deep into games then his DFS value is extremely limited.
Aaron Nola: $6,900 – TOR
I love Nola’s long term prospects, but not against the best offense in baseball.
